I think your comment is quite insightful. Just think about how many times instant messaging has shifted from one most-popular platform to another. IRC, ICQ, AIM, MSN, Skype...SMS?...Facebook?...WhatsApp? It's just a constant shift from one service to the next. Obviously this cycling will continue forever. Therefore it would seem unwise to invest in any one platform too heavily, if at all--as a user or an investor.
It makes sense to invest, I think. Notice, I'm not saying that these things aren't valuable—they are. It's just that their value is time limited. They add the bulk of their value between date X and Y, and it just decays after that. And after their value has been delivered, if they disappeared entirely the world really wouldn't be any different.
If tomorrow their was no more Facebook I don't feel like it would be a big deal for more than a week or so. After a few hours everyone would have a new solution for photos, messaging, etc.. After a month no one would care anymore.
As an investor I think the thing is to get in early, help built that valuable moment in time in peoples' lives, and then just get out.
Kind of an anecdote, but still interesting, thanks. The question is, then, for how long will Skype be as popular as it currently is? And, will these teens keep using it as they age? If so, will Skype's demographic tend to follow them?
Of course there are a million variables. I mean, AIM is still around, right? But it's no longer the "default" IM system, while a few years ago, it seemed to be (to me, anyway).
