I will get downvoted for this but I can't help thinking that billions of dollars have gone into chatgpt over a period of years and an LLM can direct all its "attention" (in a metaphorical sense) on one problem. I think if you gave top mathematicians a few million (so a fraction of a percent of chatgpt budget) to solve this problem over four years, they probably would have at least made significant progress. I don't think chatgpt has solved thousands of similar problems (even stretching that across all ham disciplines). Basically my thesis is that universal basic income could have had a similar impact, and also encouraged human flourishing elsewhere.
But these are hard IT things a human programmer really struggles with as well. What % of software written is that? Very very low. Most software is dull and requires business vagueness to be translated into deterministic logic and interfaces; LLMs are pretty great at that as it is. If humans use their old ways to fix complex problems and llms do the rest, we still only need a handful of those humans. For now.
At the moment in the UK (where any mention of digital ID sends half the population mental) you have to email a whole raft of ID docs and personal data to estate agents, mortgage brokers, solicitors etc. to get an ID check done. Or use a private ID service that can have a cost associated and may not be any more secure than my passport scan sitting in someones M365 mailbox. You can't know.
I'd be happy to have a government service replace all that nonsense, where a one-time challenge code could verify my ID. There is now a UK.gov "One Login" authentication used by other government services that is essentially a digital ID as far as I can see. It just needs to be made mandatory for ID checks by law.
Such a service can also be used for age verification with the correct privacy controls in place, far better than all the dodgy age verification services that exist now.
Digital ID and age verification are going to be a part of the internet going forward. I'd rather have a government service that (in a functioning democracy) has accountability to the citizens that use it. ID verification is also a natural monopoly, so the government picks a winner anyway.
> just as we should disallow removing citizenship.
However lots of countries do allow removing citizenship In the UK it is a political decision too. Lots of countries allow locking people out of other things (e.g. freezing bank accounts). I therefore doubt we an effectively prevent this.
I do not see the problem with physical tokens. They are simple, do not create a single point of failure (if I lose my phone I still have my cards and cash), robust to network and systems failures. What is the drawback? Having to carry a few cards?
Yeah, it was a tongue-in-cheek comment. It's a shitshow, and I wish it'd backfire, but it won't. Maybe the EU will come up with some (better) "true labelling" laws, if not I see no chance for this to get better.
(Why the current laws don't cover this, I have no idea. It's technically false advertising.)
A claim that fits every possible observation equally well isn’t an explanation. What does it help you predict, when everything falls under that label? How does it help you predict behavior of different institutions?
Exceedingly unlikely. This was one of the more discussed Erdos problems, and multiple experts have attested to the technique's novelty. If you're referring to the lack of comments on the erdosproblems website, that doesn't really mean much. From its own blog[0], the site was only started in 2023 and only really gained momentum as a place to discuss AI solving attempts, you aren't going to see serious mathematicians discussing the problems there even if there have been significant efforts to solve it.
"Many people have asked us why we didn’t build a four-wheeled cart that wouldn’t need to be balanced. However, four wheels would double the rolling resistance and thus the effort required to push the cart. Furthermore, a four-wheeled cart is less maneuverable and more difficult to drive on uneven terrain. You also need to get two extra wheels, and you need to build a steering mechanism.
"
I would have asked them why they didn't make a 3 wheeled version. Keep the two big wheels on the side, add a smaller freely rotating one in the front, like a lot of strollers have. They could make it just a tiny bit too low, so it's easy to roll it with both 2 or 3 wheels.
Yesterday I put my AirPod in and squeezed it, expecting Spotify to play - but it must have quit, and instead my mac opened up Music - and that album was STILL there and started to play. How many years has it been?
I have some of my old contacts from my prior life flying airplanes for a living. I started there because I know the field extremely well. These are my first customers so far.
The first thing was just some really simple stuff a bush airline I used to work for needed too, like, their software is through a DB run by this other company, they wanted a status board customers could view. That shouldn't be a huge lift, but the company that runs the enterprise software doesn't have the time to build it.
I sent a series of emails, got permission to hit the API, and was able to connect things so now this little bush airline has a customer facing schedule app and people don't call the office 30 times an hour to see if the flight is late or on time or early. Even in the middle of nowhere, if they have Wifi the can check the flight schedule on their phone. That has spread to "hey, do you think you could use this data to auto-populate flight and duty logs?" Yup, not a huge deal. Then onto the next one. Every month it seems I take on a new project for them and the scope of their tooling keeps growing and the recurring costs I charge to maintain things is low enough where I'm worth it. There's a dashboard of data science stuff, then a compliance auditing tool, and the list of bespoke features that are critical to them continues to grow, and they continue to pay me. It's pretty cool.
This has lead to another customer pinging me that wants me to work on an app for their factory floor to help their technicians. Nothing crazy, just a kind of wrapper over USB tool they have and a CRUD app. 99% of the real work is going to be testing out like 30 different layouts and making sure that it works properly in practice, but a big company would never bother to do this. I will go down to their factory this week, set up computer, and talk with their technicians while I vibe code it out with Codex and draw process diagrams and think. 90% of it is really just thinking about what's a prudent choice.
The SaaS the first company is paying for is incredibly necessary to run their business, those guys will probably have their hooks into that operation for many more years because of the inertia to change, but there is tons of room to fix some of the little small annoyances that not having bespoke custom software creates. Also, the software they are kind of locked into is 10s of thousands of dollars a month. I reckon in the long run I'll end up trying to build a replacement for it entirely then charging way less to give them exactly what they need.
Then there's the existential angst of vibe coding this stuff. The truth is, I could write all this code myself. It's mostly Python, and JS, but it would take me a month to do what I can do in a week and I'd be working myself to the bone. Instead, this is more like an extremely fun part-time job that's growing in scope and pay but not growing in time required of me. Seriously, these tools are cool! They're like I have a team of idiot savants/interns working for me but the entire company so far is literally just me and my wife (and she isn't really involved in the technical stuff at all). Codex is dumb and does not understand the use case at all, but good lord does it churn out boilerplate code that solves real engineering problems for customers. My job is largely playing "software plumber foreman" and making sure all the lego pieces fit together nicely and that they're good architectural choices.
For example, I was skimming the code base last week and noticed a ton of just unused code from an early iteration. I spent a bunch of time pruning that as a human, then also having codex refactor code smells I didn't like. "This file is ridiculous, it's like a monolith of 30 different concepts hammered into one place - refactor all this stuff and spread it out, move function X to a separate file, use a functional style" etc. Stuff like that is kind of mandatory, otherwise your codebase will give you a stroke and you can grow it to an extraordinary size that will hurt your ability to iterate because you'll be running into context length issues. But the robot doesn't do too horrible of a job.
I could write all of the code, but the customers don't care if it's written by a human or not? They just want it to work. So I spend a lot of the time coming up with test-cases, then interactively evaluating what the robot is building? Kind of like a really slow REPL? But I'm definitely less of an engineer and more of an architect now. That pains me a bit? But all things must come to an end.
One thing I'd say is important if you're going to do this... use the dumbest possible solution you can. You'll need to specify that to these tools otherwise they'll build you a cathedral? You probably do not need some monster system with 80 layers of abstraction. KISS is important.
In that sense the general public is less superstitious than many technologists. Some of the general public might anthropomorphize too hard. Which is pretty tame compared to the belief of the alien AI intelligence sprouting and killing us accidentally or intentionally.
As far as the paperclip problem is concerned, we’ve already had that problem for a long time now in the form of good old fashioned human institutions.
You are spot on w.r.t every assertion you've made. When bean-counters took over the ecosystem they optimised immediate profitability over everything else. Which in turn means, in their mind, every part of the system needs to be firing at 100% all the time. There's no room for experimentation, repair, or anything else.
I've commented about lack of slack on several times here on HN because when I notice a broken system now a days, 90% of it is due to lack of slack in the system to absorb short term shocks.
My understanding (IANAL) is that the GPL restricts how you /redistribute modified versions/ of the software. So I'd argue that it passes all requirements.
Can you copy and redistribute it without restriction? Sure.
Can you modify it and install the modified version on your computer without restriction? Sure.
The only thing you cannot do is redistribute the modified version. If you do that, there are some restrictions in place: you have to provide also the source of that modified version.
I mean, part of the systemic problem here is that "results were so bad they couldn't publish."
That shouldn't ever be a thing. As long as your methods are sound, it should never matter whether your results are just completely random noise; that's still an important result.
You're correct but it's irrelevant. My point was that these requirements are in the standard and if you want to put the USB logo on a power brick you need to meet them. And the consumer is intended to be able to rely on them - which was & still is a pretty good idea considering the USB-C cable carnage.
I wish they did something like this for USB-C cables, but it's probably too late.
The real-world training exercises will discover weaknesses that the paper ones won't detect (also, they are more fun - and soldiers probably need some sort of activity from time to time), but you can have a lot of paper exercises for the cost of one real-world exercise.
In some places you cannot. I was in London post-COVID and there were a bunch of tourist things, like a riverboat on the Thames, where you could only pay with a card. Went to a craft cider bar out in the countryside and again, they didn’t accept cash. Personally, I think businesses should be forced to accept all legal tender, which means cash stays as a first class payment method, but that’s not how it is in many places.
On the other hand, in Austria there are many places that are cash only, especially small restaurants in the countryside or community sporting events with coffee bars.
I paid about EUR 4500 for a 114 meter drill hole including installation of brine (ethanol in my case actually) and removal of spoils. My 8kW heat+water pump was about EUR 7000.
I can spec out a gas burner for about EUR 4000 and a central AC for EUR 5000, but I bet the efficiency of the ground source heater would quickly trump the cost of buying gas regularly.
