But most oil exports that are subsidizing the Russian economy and providing forex are being exported from the Russian Far East.
Hitting infra in Western Russia makes it painful for civilians and does have a psychological impact of highlighting to the Russia public how war has consequences, but by and large it doesn't do much given that Russia still has the capability to continue garnering foreign currency or operating with foreign markets.
Furthermore, those strikes aren't truly crippling [0] to Russian ONG capacity and the associated sanctions won't have much of an impact given how diversified Russian ONG companies are [1], with JVs and stakes in Western ambivalent countries like China, Congo, Egypt, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and others.
The psychological impact of such strikes cannot be understated, but it's not really painful for Russia given that they have chosen to dig in and believe that they can win an economic war of attrition [2] as it stands. If the much more isolated Maduro regime in Venezuela or the Khamenei regime in Iran are able to hold onto power, it's hard to see how these strikes can impact that Putin regime in what has become a war of attrition, especially when regional powers like Vietnam have begun pivoting back to Russia [3], and larger powers like China [4] and India [5] are doubling down on Russian investments.
Putin may not lose power, but may lose ability to keep the logistics of an invasion force. Also, none of those other countries are locked in a war of attrition.
Iran was in a de facto decade long state of war with troops, munitions, and significant capital going to theatres in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon, Libya, and Sudan - just like Russia has been in Ukraine.
> Putin may not lose power, but may lose ability to keep the logistics of an invasion force
That is true and highly likely, but that isn't a win either, especially if Russia changes it's tune to turning Ukraine into an economic war of attrition, which seems to be the plan given their recent pivot to targeting Ukrainian energy and industrial infrastructure.
Since Russia can't drive troops into Kyiv, they are trying to destroy Ukraine's infra to such a degree that it would require a Herculean amount of investment from European capitals, which would be difficult to fully unlock due to Ukraine not being a part of the EU and face pressure from European nations own budgets for rearmament.
A frozen conflict with much of Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, and large portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson remaining under Russian control isn't a win for Ukraine, and longer term freezes Ukraine out of the EU and NATO because conducting an election during an active war with a nation that has previously meddled in their elections is unrealistic, but the EU can't make an exception for Ukraine due to internal votes along with the precedent it sets for other EU ascension members.
Hitting infra in Western Russia makes it painful for civilians and does have a psychological impact of highlighting to the Russia public how war has consequences, but by and large it doesn't do much given that Russia still has the capability to continue garnering foreign currency or operating with foreign markets.
Furthermore, those strikes aren't truly crippling [0] to Russian ONG capacity and the associated sanctions won't have much of an impact given how diversified Russian ONG companies are [1], with JVs and stakes in Western ambivalent countries like China, Congo, Egypt, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and others.
The psychological impact of such strikes cannot be understated, but it's not really painful for Russia given that they have chosen to dig in and believe that they can win an economic war of attrition [2] as it stands. If the much more isolated Maduro regime in Venezuela or the Khamenei regime in Iran are able to hold onto power, it's hard to see how these strikes can impact that Putin regime in what has become a war of attrition, especially when regional powers like Vietnam have begun pivoting back to Russia [3], and larger powers like China [4] and India [5] are doubling down on Russian investments.
[0] - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/1...
[1] - https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/1...
[2] - https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-war-ukraine-next-chapt...
[3] - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/world/asia/3-takeaways-fr...
[4] - https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/power-of-siberia-2-rus...
[5] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-signs-pact-with-sa...