Apple is setting fire to so much developer good will. Surely the need to purchase a Mac per developer, multiple iOS devices for testing, and the $99/year for a developer account is enough of a fee already paid to access that "core technology".
I can't help but wonder how many developers are now considering whether iOS support for PWAs is good enough to sidestep this crap entirely. Tim Cook really needs to learn the definition of the word "symbiosis", because a smartphone with no third-party software is barely worth anything.
I have no numbers to back it up, but I would expect these days that a big chunk of revenue from non-ad-supported mobile apps is subscriptions. In which case, assuming you could get the same number of customers (a big if, especially considering Apple's unwillingess to treat PWAs as first-class citizens), you would make more money because you wouldn't lose 15-30% to Apple.
For what it's worth, I much prefer a high-quality native app to a PWA, but Apple's treatment of developers as basically bottom feeders leaves a very sour taste in my mouth.
Are they though? I haven't seen any evidence to suggest significant migration away from the iOS App Store. I was under the impression that devs and consumers that cared about side-loading largely already self-selected to Android.
It's certainly a major disincentive for me to start developing iOS apps. Dealing with all that patronization and red tape is off-putting and feels just not worth it for projects that you want to do for personal edification and fulfillment. IOS not being particularly fun to develop for likely hurts the platform to some degree.
What I'm speculating is less that established apps will move elsewhere (after all, without rewriting your product with web tech there is nowhere to move to outside of the EU), and more whether new developers will simply choose not to bother or to go web-first at the start.
It's no surprise that Apple tries to grift developers by creatively redefining the scope of what the developer fees actually get you. Coming up with the slimiest ways to extract money is the core of their DNA.
I expect that in a few years they'll say that their "Core technology fee" doesn't actually cover the full development experience, only the "core" of their technology, i.e. the compiler, while device-specific frameworks/libraries ought to cost extra for the relationship to be "fair".
As you say, Apple have forgotten how their relationship with 3rd party developers really works. They owe their success in the mobile space to them, yet they're so quick to brush them off and have the nerve to say that actually, developers should be paying them for the privilege - it's disturbing.
I can't help but wonder how many developers are now considering whether iOS support for PWAs is good enough to sidestep this crap entirely. Tim Cook really needs to learn the definition of the word "symbiosis", because a smartphone with no third-party software is barely worth anything.