I think that if I tried to rank-order strategies optimizing for fundraising, "act as if I'm trying to invent technology that I think stands a decent chance of causing human extinction, in the limit" would not come close to making the cut.
I don't see Anthropic making very confident claims about when they're going to achieve AGI (however you want to define that). Predicting how long it'll take to produce a specific novel scientific result is, by its very nature, pretty difficult. (You might have some guesses, if you have a comprehensive understanding of what unsolved dependencies there are, and have some reason to believe you know how long it'll take to solve _those_, and that's very much not the case here. But if you're in that kind of situation, it's much more likely you're dealing with an engineering problem, not a research problem.) Elsewhere in the comments on this link, their CISO predicts a 50% chance of hitting capabilities that'll trigger their ASL-3 standard in the next 6 months (my guess is on the strength of its ability to find vulnerabilities in open-source codebases). That's predicting the timeline for a small advancement in a relatively narrow set of capabilities where we can at least sort of measure progress.
I don't see Anthropic making very confident claims about when they're going to achieve AGI (however you want to define that). Predicting how long it'll take to produce a specific novel scientific result is, by its very nature, pretty difficult. (You might have some guesses, if you have a comprehensive understanding of what unsolved dependencies there are, and have some reason to believe you know how long it'll take to solve _those_, and that's very much not the case here. But if you're in that kind of situation, it's much more likely you're dealing with an engineering problem, not a research problem.) Elsewhere in the comments on this link, their CISO predicts a 50% chance of hitting capabilities that'll trigger their ASL-3 standard in the next 6 months (my guess is on the strength of its ability to find vulnerabilities in open-source codebases). That's predicting the timeline for a small advancement in a relatively narrow set of capabilities where we can at least sort of measure progress.