No that’s not the divide. Bayesian requires you to have an estimate of the prior and a reasonable way to update that estimate by validating against ground truth. Here there’s no ground truth and no principled way that the prior is being picked. It’s numerology masking itself as statistical rigor.

I have no problem with 538 saying that politician A has a 30% chance of winning because it’s a blended weighted average of several independent measurements of the ground truth (polling). There’s no independent measurements of the ground truth happening here. Indeed, things regarding war plans would be classified documents random people wouldn’t have to come up with a better estimate.