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Does that count the people that may die early of cancer in decades to come?


Yes. The carcinogenic effects of acute exposure to vinyl chloride are low, and most of it was burned off intentionally by setting the train cars on fire.

Those most at risk are the first responders; everyone who heeded the evacuation order should be pretty much fine.


Burning vinyl chlorine turns it into phosgene. The deadliest chemical weapon from WW1. I'd say there's some risk involved.

https://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2023/02/17/was-vinyl-chloride-use...


Some risk, yes, which is why I mentioned the first responders, as they were closest to the burn itself.

Phosgene breaks down in the environment on timescales measured from hours to days. The five-day evac window was more than enough to remove all appreciable amounts of phosgene from the environment. And given how reactive it is, you can trust the lack of anyone showing up in a hospital in east Ohio looking like they climbed out of an eastern-front trench as indicative that the phosgene has not caused harm.

It's real easy to over-estimate the damage this spill will do. In practice, people have been using (and spilling) vinyl chloride for over 180 years; we have a pretty good sense of the damage it can do. Not a good situation, but far on the low end of environmental impact risks (somewhere north of "a car full of diapers" and far, far south of "a car full of perchloroethylene").




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