Rising nationalism worldwide is a bane to European prosperity and I don't see that trend reversing. In the latest bout of EUR depreciation, one can interpret Russia's invasion as a nationalist imperative. The prior bout of EUR volatility accompanied Brexit, of course. And over the last decade, the US has been a better investment destination than Europe (probably the case going forward too).
In contrast, many commentators thought London (and Paris to a much lesser extent) would take financial market share away from New York during the aughts, the heyday of globalization. Celebrities like Gisele famously demanded to be paid in EUR, while Jay-Z showed off his Euro notes in the video for "Blue Magic."
It doesn’t really help that the last crisis exposed that Eurozone governance is a headache compared to the relative cohesion of a one-country currency, due to the individual countries butting heads about policy.
To look at the government styles of other major reserve currencies (USD, CNY, JPY), state/provincial/regional governors have little to no impact on monetary or financial policy. Florida doesn't have the ability to veto the FDIC saving a New York bank for political points, the same way Germany was very will-they-won't-they over several major bailouts.
The difference is that even when non-Euro countries have different regional leaders butting heads, you still have both fiscal and monetary policy controlled by those elected/appointed from the same country.
In the grand scheme of global economics, yes, nationalism has a very big impact, and it typically lasts longer than pandemic lockdowns or gas sanctions.
> Rising nationalism worldwide is a bane to European prosperity and I don't see that trend reversing.
Also importantly, the EU's economic raison d'etre ended last quarter.
It was simple: Germany props the EU with transfer payments and EU members commit to buying German goods. Now Germany has a trade deficit. A major exporter-manufacturer has a trade deficit. That's like China having a trade deficit. This is absolutely cataclysmic and an economic fuse of unknown length just got lit on the EU.
And the worst probably isn't even behind us as Brussels continues to self-destruct for the sake of stopping a comic-book villain version of Putin who is apparently an existential threat to the West, but also not powerful enough to even take over Ukraine.
I'm not one for predictions, but unless Brussels comes back to reality and stops dealing with platitudes and the ideas of insulated Davos elites, it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade.
> the ideas of _Klaus Schwab_, it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade.
EU people gave control to Schwab. Your timeline looks to be correct for EU crack-up caused in part by unpayable pension obligations.
In the meantime, my tourist dollars spend further in Europe this summer.
> a comic-book villain version of Putin who is apparently an existential threat to the West, but also not powerful enough to even take over Ukraine.
Russia is more than powerful enough to take over Ukraine on its own. But Western aid to Ukraine — because of the perceived Russian threat — has been enormous. US direct military aid since the major invasion this year being more than Ukraine’s most recent annual defense spending.
> [...] Brussels continues to self-destruct for the sake of stopping a comic-book villain version of Putin who is apparently an existential threat to the West, but also not powerful enough to even take over Ukraine.
You might be underestimating how close Vladimir Putin is to a comic book villain. I'd recommend you to take a look at https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/16/the-criminals-in-the... . (Meduza is a reputable Russian journalistic medium, operating in exile from Rīga, Latvia. )
> I'm not one for predictions, but unless Brussels comes back to reality and stops dealing with platitudes and the ideas of insulated Davos elites,
I've noticed from up close how much of the EU structure, especially the EU parliament, is actually very approachable by the ordinary member state citizens it is supposed to serve.
> it's quite likely the EU ceases to exist as we know it within the decade.
The risk certainly seems a lot higher that for the US or Russia. "Quite likely" is a bit of an exaggeration at this point though. I do hope a decent EU will last quite a bit longer. I feel like all recent crises have actually strengthened the EU.
In contrast, many commentators thought London (and Paris to a much lesser extent) would take financial market share away from New York during the aughts, the heyday of globalization. Celebrities like Gisele famously demanded to be paid in EUR, while Jay-Z showed off his Euro notes in the video for "Blue Magic."