Most people, like you, do not rent and are not exposed to this at all. Further, 30% y/o/y rent increases are limited to a tiny minority of cities (I would even suspect 30% is an exaggeration for any major metro).

> Child care is basically free for most people after their kids start elementary school

I can't tell whether this is a troll or not. In case you're serious, consider that school dismissal is in the middle of the afternoon, and generally speaking someone has to get the kids home and occupy them for a few hours. This is of course before holidays, summer break, and extracurriculars.

> Groceries are far more expensive than they used to be, I am going to estimate at least 20%

Your estimate is likely not as accurate as the BLS's estimate of 7.4%. (Caveat: many people who read HN are rich or high earners, and so they may eat different food than most Americans. That food may have increased at a faster rate.)

> Rents in my city are up 25% last year and expected to increase a further 20% this year.

This is why BLS weighs expenses. Neither of us is exposed to this at all.

Perhaps, but if it were generally true, inflation stats would over-reflect it rather than ignoring it; the housing component is entirely rent driven (it reflects actual rents and the rent forgone by homeowners not renting out their homes), so in a situation where rents are increasing but mortgage expenses are flat, it overstates the impact of out-of-pocket housing costs (it does the reverse when purchase/mortgage expenses are increasing faster than rents.)