The organizers have been pretty clear that they're not going to hold one during COVID, so I'd judge the chances to be extremely small, no matter what Thierry "GOAT IET OAN" Baudet says.
They said they are ready to hold an elfstedentocht within 48 hours, if there is any change to the rules though, so it would need both full ice formation and government intervention. Not holding any hopes though.
Political pressure will be enormous if the conditions are right in a week or so. With elections happening in a month or so, it's unlikely the rules won't change as political pressure mounts. You have to imagine covid being secondary to this news item in the Netherlands between now and when this decision needs to happen.
The flip side is that for 10-15 centimeters of ice to happen over a 200km route, the freezing temperatures have to hold for quite a bit more time (a week plus). Current predictions are not inconsistent with that but of course a lot can happen in that time. That being said; it's been quite a while since we've seen these kinds of temperatures hold for this long.
> it's unlikely the rules won't change as political pressure mounts.
No. It's extremely unlikely the rules WILL change. With curfew extended for another month, there is an as good as zero chance they will drop 1.5m rules (which is what the committee has based their decision on) before March.
An exception being made for the event, perhaps with strong travel restrictions towards the event, seems within the realm of possibility.
For better or for worse, the dutch government has shown pretty big flexibility and a willingness to deviate from stated plans based on new information and public pressure. I would say there's at least a 20% chance the government would change rules to allow this to happen.
