There are some legendary stories about what happens when Apple enters your market. I think Marco's right that he's pretty safe on the Instapaper front (for the reasons he says). That said, here's another tale of Apple entering a market, written by Cabel Sasser at Panic about Audion:
Panic's "Graduate from iTunes" banner ad campaign for Audion is a great example of trying for the pro/hardcore market when Apple has entered your space. Specifically, it's a great example of how it is very very hard to make it work out for you, but still, they tried.
Re: the Starbucks effect, I'm not sure I agree. I think the difference between Starbucks moving in next door and Apple implementing a feature like Reading List is that in the case of Starbucks moving in next door, their marketing drives foot traffic to the vicinity of your location--which you can then take advantage of. I.e., people walking by see your signage and therefore you can capture sales. It is the creation of demand, but it's the creation of demand that your own (much less resourced marketing) can then take advantage of.
In the Reading List case, there's no guarantee that customers that "get educated" about the product will necessarily ever find out about yours. It's still up to you to be in the same "location" as the competitor's product in order to benefit from their marketing.
This may be the case for very well-known products that are always going to be discussed in concert with a feature launched by an Apple in the media, product reviews, etc. But it's certainly not categorically the case.
The track record for Apple turning third party apps into features (as opposed to their own apps ala iTunes), has been pretty pathetic: usually what happens is that its so poorly done by Apple that the feature just stops being used and the functionality just flat out dies. Examples:
1. Quicksilver <-> Spotlight. Spotlight is terrible. Everyone I know who used quicksilver just uses nothing now. They certainly haven't "switched" to Spotlight because spotlight doesn't do anything half as well as quicksilver did, not even launching apps for god's sake.
2. Kaleidoscope <-> Dashboard. Another disaster. Dashboard seems to exist solely to be accidentally opened, or I guess for some people it serves as their dedicated weather "space". Apple does not hype up widgets at all anymore.
3. Safari RSS. Does anyone actually use this? Or how about Mail.app RSS? At least here the third party RSS apps didn't die (although I see less people using RSS than ever, but I don't attribute this to OS RSS integration).
Most of the people I know that used to use Quicksilver now use Alfred: http://bagcheck.com/item/0238-alfred The rest are very happy with Spotlight, like myself.
On the other hand, the Reader button in Safari is awesome and if the new Instapaper-like functionality syncs that content, it will do quite well.
I'll grant you that Spotlight could be a bit quicker and smarter, but I nevertheless use it all the time. I was never a Quicksilver power user, but I've found Spotlight adequate enough that I've never bothered installing any alternatives (ie. Launchbar).
I think this is actually the crux of the issue. Some really unique ideas were replaced with "adequate-enough" ones that ultimately had the (unintended?) consequence of killing those other special features. Some may say this is a good thing, but it a phenomenon that exists nevertheless.
Every item on your list is you projecting your personal opinions onto everyone else. Just because you and your Quicksilver-using buddies don't use Spotlight, Dashboard, or Safari RSS doesn't mean other people don't.
The features Apple adds are intended to add value and convenience for the average user. If you have RSS needs so great that you require a dedicated third-party application, you're more than welcome to use one.
I actually 1: did not use quicksilver, 2. did not use kaleidoscope, and 3. never used RSS. These thoughts are purely empirical:
RSS was primarily a nerd feature in the first place, which is why it is so silly that Apple added it for consumers, not once, but TWICE. No one actually uses Safari RSS. If they did, why the need to then add it to Mail.app? Would it add even MORE value to add RSS to the Finder too? Why stop there, iTunes seems to have everything else in there already, one more tab that reads "RSS" wouldn't hurt.
Dashboard being a failure is clear. If it was a success (like the App Store), we'd still see Apple touting widgets and maybe even selling them. The fact of the matter is that there is no ecosystem of people writing widgets for this thing. Dashcode was largely repurposed as an iOS web app creation tool (also unused by all). So the result: no Kaleidoscope and hardly any Dashboard use.
Spotlight: It has been shown to be much slower than other tools (and was terribly buggy for many releases, where was the value back when it needed to re-index on every reboot and dragged your computer to a halt?) Most of the "Add on" features are broken too: if you type a simple formula into it, it will show the result, but you can't copy/paste it, so what's the point?
I'm not hating on Apple, they clearly get a lot of stuff right (such as Expose!), but their track record proves they get more stuff right when its their own idea. These little feature additions that seem designed solely to kill third party devs seem almost like half-hearted mini passion projects of single engineers that then die when they get reassigned to something else.
I'm undecided whether I agree with your thesis, but I definitely disagree with much of your evidence.
RSS was primarily a nerd feature in the first place
Why is the concept of a bookmark that can tell you when it has updates a nerd feature? This was essentially Apple's implementation in Safari. (At least, initially, I haven't paid attention to how it evolved).
iTunes seems to have everything else in there already, one more tab that reads "RSS" wouldn't hurt.
This exists. It's called "Podcasts", and it's wildly successful.
Dashboard being a failure is clear.
Here, we agree. I think that if it displayed among your other windows, rather than being relegated to a modal view, it would have been much more successful. I believe this was a decision for performance reasons, but it was still never corrected once performance was no longer a concern.
Spotlight ... where was the value back when it needed to re-index on every reboot and dragged your computer to a halt?
Anecdote != data, but I never experienced these problems, and I was running 10.4 on a G4 iMac, which originally came with 10.2.
Honestly, I think Sherlock and Dashboard would be your two strongest arguments.
Then again, let's look at iTunes. Sure, it's bloated now, and sure, they bought it, but the reason it won is because it really was excellent. (I say this as someone who used Audion for years and I still have a giant place in my heart for it). Solving music library management was exactly the right problem, and iTunes (& SoundJam before it) got this right far before their competitors did.
How about iChat? It's built in, it's integrated, it's pretty darn good, but almost everyone I know who knows about Adium uses it instead.
The iChat situation is actually more curious. It differs from everything else in a few regards:
1. Adium was an open source project that had barely started when iChat came out. The "true" competitor in this case was the official AIM client which I'm pretty sure Apple made a deal with AOL. -- This alone should disqualify it from any further discussion.
2. AIM is not the dominant network in most other countries (making iChat useless in those cases)
3. AOL owns the network and thus its pretty hard for Apple to outright "kill" other chat apps.
--
Why is the concept of a bookmark that can tell you when it has updates a nerd feature?
I don't know, but it is. I can guarantee you my parents don't know what RSS is. I think the story of RSS is probably pretty interesting, it may be the case that as social started providing better links than one-team blog sites, its use went down, but this is purely speculation on my part.
--
Spotlight issues are not anecdotal, they were widely reported. Remember that this feature is now 6 years old, but just search on the internet and you will see that Apple's support forums and articles in Apple sites are full of stuff like this:
(just a few, the more curious can track it more thoroughly)
It was so bad for some people that a "spotless" application was created to remove it from particularly pesky computers (no zealots ever felt the need to remove expose). It received 4 mice from MacWorld -- http://www.fixamacsoftware.com/software/spot/! This is all very well documented and 'it worked for me' is in this case the far more anecdotal stance. I will completely concede that these problems have for the most part gone away -- but again, its been 6 years. I'd hate it if this kills Instapaper and it takes a similarly long time to get parity.
--
I mentioned iTunes in my original post as something that was successful, and my analysis was that it was because it was a "real" app: in other words, something Apple cared about and created a team around. I don't think Apple cares that much about Dashboard or Safari RSS.
And yes I completely forgot about Sherlock: it does fit the bill really well. Remember how after a while they were shipping it with channels that wouldn't even work anymore? I think its funny that they still have a page for it here: http://www.apple.com/lae/sherlock/
Either Apple have worked on the speed or hardware has just got better but Spotlight is very usable for most people I know. This is especially true of those on a new MacBook Air where it appears instant. Also if you use it a lot it caches the results you hit, so for repetitive app launching it has always worked adequately.
Wow, I've been retyping the results of some simple addition every time I pay my bills for years now. Just assumed Command-C didn't work there, especially because it gives no feedback that it did. Thanks!
"And if they build a large enough feature-set and backing service to make it a true competitor, they’re likely to create a lot of potential Instapaper demand."
Isn't that a little backwards? If Apple builds a true competitor, then it's going to create a lot less potential Instapaper demand. See Watson and Kaleidoscope for reasons why.
I think he's betting on being able to implement better than apple.
He states:
My biggest challenge isn’t winning over converts from my competitors: it’s explaining what Instapaper does and convincing people that they actually need it.
So if apple deploys this everywhere, more people will understand it. Since Instapaper already has such a huge user base, established users will (supposedly) say 'oh, I use instapaper. It's much better'.
So apple creates new users, which are then drawn to Instapaper's superior service.
This is all dependent upon Instapaper actually implementing substantially better, but so far apple has sucked at multi-device syncing of, well, just about anything.
I don't buy it. If Apple creates new users, more often than not they will keep them. I wouldn't count on Instapaper's huge user base (which I'm guessing is mainly the tech crowd) influencing normal, everyday users.
Sherlock beating Watson was a prime example where Apple's execution was somewhat similar (some say worse), but it still killed that product.
I'd argue that apple is largely responsible for android's success - normal, everyday people knew they wanted a touchscreen smartphone only after apple made it possible to own one, but more importantly, made it popular to own one with the iPhone. As long as there is enough of a difference between them to choose one over the other, I think he's right to bet on it being a net-win for him.
They did during the Google Voice fiasco. A bunch of third party GV apps that were already approved (GV Mobile was one [1]) were pulled. Since rectified, but has happened before.
Not much unless OSX achieves higher market share than its competition or people on other platforms start to use Safari instead of their preferred browsers. That won't happen anytime soon.
I'd be more worried about a feature like this coming to Mobile Safari.
I'd rather have a "Video Viewing List" that gets video watching out of the browser. Apple is one of the few participants in the ecosystem that might have enough "market power" to do that at this late date.
I agree - I'm trying out http://vhx.tv after someone recommended it here, though it is still in the browser at the moment ( I believe they are working on apps). However, there's still a problem I haven't seen any video-instapaper service solve - how to cache videos for offline / multiple device viewing.
I think you run into a lot more issues with copyright enforcement, storage space, and ability to even copy files (different format, might only be served in flash) than text-based services have. We might have to wait until HTML5 video grows enough in popularity before seeing a decent implementation of this feature.
I have been using instapaper for a while and absolutely love it, but I think the real kicker for me was when iwas able to view what my social graph was saving for later with their twitter and fb integration.... That being said, I am a HUGE fan of Shelby.tv. I have tried a few other services in the space, but have yet to find anything that I go back to. I am finding their "always on" experience to facilitate choices. But again, I think the kicker is the social curation that I love most. They figure out which videos I want to watch based off my activity....
....now if only my instapaper filled up with articles that I wanted to read all by itself....
I have been on the shelby.tv alpha for a weeks... I love it and totally agree with all your points but I wanted to add that one of my favorite things is how easy it is to share the videos back out while you are watching them (retweet, tweet, post & comment on facebook).
Also, the application is extremely lightweight and doesn't get in the way of the video --- a simple, yet powerful experience.
http://watchlaterapp.com/ will do offline caching (including Flash videos) to your iPad, but it's only a web/iPad service, so I'm not sure it ticks the "multiple device" box.
interesting, though I just signed up and my video player was empty, and I'm hesitant to pay for their iPad app.
That's one of the things I like about the onboarding experience with Shelby.tv; when you sign up, you can start watching what your friends are tweeting/sharing since it pulls it from you twitter/facebook accounts.
http://www.panic.com/extras/audionstory/